The 2014 Oscar Nominations

The 2014 Oscar nominations are out! Every year, I see the noms and I make at least three predictions of who the winners will be. My changing mind depends on different variables: the Oscar “rules” that always apply to the awards, the best performances in each category, and the voracity of the campaigns which precede the final round of voting for the winners. It would be nice if one could base his predictions on the best performances but with the Academy this is not possible. So, based on the facts at hand right now, these are my current anticipations for this year’s Oscar winners.

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years A Slave
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender in 12 Years A Slave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
Best Actor: Bruce Dern in Nebraska
Best Director: Steve McQueen for 12 Years A Slave
Best Picture: American Hustle

Current ideas on why these predictions will win:

Lupita Nyong’o: This is her first film and she was superb in it.
Michael Fassbender: He’s owed after the Academy refused him a nomination for showing his privates in Shameless and because he’s the oldest nominee in his category.
Cate Blanchett: She’s generating the most buzz in this category and she was nominated twice before, without winning, for portraying Queen Elizabeth I.
Bruce Dern: The “Career” award given out every year.
Steve McQueen: His film told a very important story and he told it with a deft hand.
American Hustle: It won Best Picture at The Golden Globes and the temerity of the ingredients which have made it so successful is enviable.

Current ideas on possible upsets:

Best Supporting Actress: Either Julia Roberts in August: Osage County or Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle. Both fall under the “Second Statue in a Different Category Rule.”
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto in Dallas Buyer’s Club. His was The Best performance in this category.
Best Actress: Either Amy Adams in American Hustle or Judi Dench in Philomena. Adams benefits from her position in the lineup while Dench had The Best performance in this category.
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyer’s Club. Another Best performance case.
Best Director: David O. Russell for American Hustle. His picture won Best Film at The Golden Globes.
Best Picture: 12 Years A Slave. It didn’t win Best Picture at The Golden Globes and it was really The Best film of the year.

I’ll update you all when I’ve changed my mind. LOL!

C